[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 April 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 3 10:08:53 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Apr 04 Apr 05 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day. Both numbered
spot groups (Region 1057 (N17W59) and Region 1059 (S24E02)) remain
stable. Solar activity is expected to be very low over the next
three days. An inter-planetary shock was detected in the solar
wind by the ACE satellite at 0636UT with an associated 100km/s
step in solar wind speeds and large IMF Bz fluctuations. The
source of the interplanetary shock remains unclear. A sustained
Bz southward structure observed at STEREO-B on 29-Mar is expected
at Earth 04/05-Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 02 Apr : A K
Australian Region 11 21432322
Darwin 9 11332322
Townsville 11 22432322
Learmonth 10 11332332
Canberra 7 10332222
Hobart 12 11433323
Casey(Ant) 12 33432222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Apr :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 3322 4313
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Apr 5 Quiet
04 Apr 5 Quiet
05 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity range from Quiet to Active over
the UT day. An interplanetary shock produced a sudden impulse
in the geomagnetic field at 02/0720UT resulting in an isolated
period of Unsettled-Active geomagnetic conditions at all latitudes.
Expect mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions next 2 days (03/04-Apr),
and Quiet-Unsettled conditions with isolated Active periods day
3 (05-Apr) in response to an expected southward IMF-Bz structure
ahead of a coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Apr 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day,
Mear predicted monthly values during local night,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 8
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Apr 20 near predicted monthly values
04 Apr 20 near predicted monthly values
05 Apr 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Some significant MUF enhancements observed throughout
the region over the past 24 hours, particularly at Equatorial
locations. Expect generally enhanced conditions next three days
(02-04 Apr).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Apr
Speed: 414 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 201000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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