[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 March 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 1 10:08:34 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar:  81/22


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Apr             02 Apr             03 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day. Region 
1057 (N17W35) continues to decay, and Region 1059 (S23E24) remains 
a stable alpha spot group. Solar activity is expected to be very 
low over the next three days. The solar wind speed ranged from 
320-420km/s over the period and is expected to remain low for 
the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 31 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22121212
      Darwin               2   11010112
      Townsville           5   22121212
      Learmonth            4   21111211
      Canberra             0   00010001
      Hobart               5   12121212
      Casey(Ant)           9   33321212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            54   (Unsettled)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   2101 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Apr     5    Quiet 
02 Apr     3    Quiet 
03 Apr     3    Quiet 

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day. Expect 
mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Mar    29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Apr    25    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
02 Apr    25    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
03 Apr    25    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 

COMMENT: Significant MUF enhancements observed throughout the 
region over the past 24 hours, particularly during local night. 
Expect generally enhanced conditions next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 382 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    80600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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