[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 September 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 27 09:53:55 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Sep:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Sep             28 Sep             29 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed increased from 280km/s at 0000UT to 340km/s 
at 12UT and is 320km/s at the time of this report. An increase 
in the solar wind speed, temperature and density at 12UT is likely 
due to a weak co-rotating interaction region ahead of the anticipated 
high speed coronal hole wind stream. Bz ranged between +6nT and 
-5nT over the UT day. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low 
over the next 3 days with a slight chance of a C-class event. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 26 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11111123
      Darwin               4   11011113
      Townsville           5   12112122
      Learmonth            5   21111113
      Canberra             2   10001012
      Hobart               4   11111122
      Casey(Ant)           6   22211123
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Sep : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0100 0101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
28 Sep     7    Quiet 
29 Sep     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet 
to Unsettled conditions expected for the next 24 hours with possible 
Active periods due to the expected arrival of a coronal hole 
high speed solar wind stream. Mostly Quiet conditions expected 
28Sep and 29Sep. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
28 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Sep    -0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:   0

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Sep     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
28 Sep     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
29 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24 
hours for all regions, with enhancements during local night for 
Southern AUS/NZ regions and depressed conditions during local 
night for Equatorial regions and local day for Northern AUS regions. 
Some disturbed periods for Antarctic regions. Depressed MUFs 
of ~20% for low latitudes 27Sep along with disturbed periods 
for high latitudes. Mostly normal HF support for most regions 
28Sep-29Sep with continued MUF depressions for low latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Sep
Speed: 289 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    15000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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