[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 September 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Sep:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Sep:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Sep             21 Sep             22 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               74/11              76/14

COMMENT: The visible disk is spotless. The solar wind speed remained 
below 400 km/s over the past 24 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Sep: Quiet with unsettled
periods at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 19 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12111011
      Darwin               2   12100001
      Townsville           5   22211121
      Learmonth            2   12110000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               2   11111001
      Casey(Ant)           6   23311111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   2100 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Sep     5    Quiet 
21 Sep     5    Quiet 
22 Sep     5    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Sep      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
19 Sep    -8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30% at
      Vanimo 07-20 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Spread F observed at
      Cocos Is. 15-22 UT. No data for Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 40% at
      Canberra, Christchurch, Hobart and Sydney between
      about 12-20 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:   0

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values 
22 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Depressions to 30% possible, particularly at lower latitudes.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Sep
Speed: 414 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    66600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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