[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 September 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 7 09:13:06 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Sep:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Sep             08 Sep             09 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
The visible disk remains spotless. Solar wind speed remained 
below 400km/s. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for 
the next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Sep: Quiet, with an
isolated Unsettled period 03-06UT. 

Estimated Indices 06 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   13111011
      Darwin               3   13110001
      Townsville           6   13211122
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             1   02000001
      Hobart               4   23111011
      Casey(Ant)           6   23221111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1200 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Sep     3    Quiet 
08 Sep     3    Quiet 
09 Sep     3    Quiet 

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet over the last 
24 hours, with an isolated Unsettled period 03-06UT. Quiet conditions 
expected next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Sep    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:   0

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Sep    -7    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Sep    -4    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Sep    -4    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values in the 
S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions 06 Sep and depressed in the
N.Aus/equatorial regions, particularly overnight. HF conditions 
were mostly Normal in the south. The equatorial regions saw some 
considerable periods of sporadic-E around dusk. HF conditions 
are expected to be mostly normal next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Sep
Speed: 429 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    39300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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