[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 October 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 14 10:17:31 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 72/8
COMMENT: Solar wind speed Vsw was at nominal 340-370km/sec level
and expected to remain so for at least three days. IMF Bz was
intermittent southward 04-09UT 16-20UT causing merging with the
geomagnetic field and activity near the auroral oval. The solar
disc continues to remain spotless although an as yet un-numbered
region is in second day of transit on the eastern limb in the
SOHO spacecraft EIT imagery. Magnetograms indicate simple bipolar
magnetic configuration at this stage so flaring likelihood should
be low. Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels
for the next three days. STEREO-B shows an extension of the northern
polar coronal hole that may enhance solar wind speed in a weeks
time.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 21211112
Darwin 2 11111101
Townsville 6 21222222
Learmonth 4 21211112
Canberra 2 10201101
Hobart 5 21212211
Casey(Ant) 8 33-21122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Oct :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0010 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Oct 5 Quiet
15 Oct 4 Quiet
16 Oct 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet at mid-latitudes but
Unsettled to Active at polar latitudes ~05-09UT and 18-22 UT
due to IMF Bz southward orientation. Quiet conditions may be
expected at mid and equatorial latitudes for the next 3 days
unless a prolonged (> 12 hrs) IMF Bz southward period occurs.
Polar activity is likely to be Unsettled-Active. STEREO-B shows
another thin vertical coronal hole about one week from geoeffective
position.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Oct -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island/Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Oct -2 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
15 Oct -2 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
16 Oct -2 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: HF frequencies are expected to remain mostly at normal
to slightly reduced levels during daytime across Aus/NZ regions
for the next 3 days with possible nighttime enhancements.
Near-Equatorial
regions show higher variability than mid-latitudes due to the
equatorial fountain. Also the lack of magnetic activity indicates
much of the low and mid latitude variability from monthly medians
is being driven by neutral winds. No significant geomagnetic
activity that would lift ionisation and frequencies expected
for a week when a coronal hole will probably take effect.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 47400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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