[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 October 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 12 10:36:17 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 OCTOBER - 14 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Oct: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over
the last 24 hours. As anticipated, the solar wind stream
showed strengthening today as the solar wind speed
increased
from 300 km/s to 450 km/s during the day. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field stayed mostly between
+/- 5nT during this period.The solar disc continues to remain
spotless. Solar activity is expected to stay at very low
levels for the next three days. However the strengthening
in the solar wind stream is expected to continue on 12 and
possibly 13 October too.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Oct: Mostly quiet to
unsettled with isolated active periods.
Estimated Indices 11 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 23422212
Darwin 10 23422212
Townsville 10 23422222
Learmonth 9 23422211
Canberra 7 22421111
Hobart 10 23422212
Casey(Ant) 16 34541211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Oct :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 0001 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Oct 6 Quiet to unsettled
13 Oct 6 Quiet to unsettled
14 Oct 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions increased from quiet to
unsettled levesl today with isolated active periods recorded
on some locations. Similar conditions may be expected for
the next 2 days after which the conditions are expected to
return to quiet levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly at normal levels on
mid latitude locations and at normal to fair levels at low
and high latitude locations on 11 October. Sporadic E-layer
on low and mid latitudes resulted in unexpected variations
to HF conditions at these locations. HF conditions are expected
to remain mostly at normal to fair levels on most locations
for the next two days (12 and 13 October) with the conditions
returning to mostly normal level on the third day (14 October).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Oct -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island/Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
13 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
14 Oct -4 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly at normal
to fair levels across Aus/NZ regions for the next two days (12
and 13 October) with the expectation that the conditions will
return to mostly normal levels on 14 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Oct
Speed: 264 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 10000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list