[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 October 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 10 10:12:05 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Oct             11 Oct             12 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over 
the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed stayed between 270 
and 320 km/s for most parts of this period. The Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field stayed mostly slightly 
negative (upto -4nT) during this period.The solar disc 
continues to remain spotless. Solar activity is expected to 
stay at very low levels for the next three days. However 
some strengthening in the solar wind stream is possible on 
11 and 12 October due to a recurrent pattern. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 09 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12211111
      Darwin               2   11110101
      Townsville           5   12221212
      Learmonth            3   21111110
      Canberra             1   11100000
      Hobart               3   11211111
      Casey(Ant)           6   23221111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   1100 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Oct     3    Quiet 
11 Oct     4    Quiet 
12 Oct     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions remained at quiet levels on 
09 October. Similar conditions may be expected for the next 
3 days with a slight chance of isolated unsettled periods on 
12 October. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly at normal levels on 
most locations on 09 October. Wide spread sporadic E-layer 
on low and mid latitudes resulted in unexpected variations 
to HF conditions at these locations. HF conditions are expected 
to remain mostly normal on most locations for the next three 
days with a slight chance of isolated minor degradation 
periods at high latitudes on 12 October. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Oct    -5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island/Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with 
      periods of degradations.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Oct    -2    near predicted monthly values 
11 Oct    -2    near predicted monthly values 
12 Oct    -3    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
across Aus/NZ regions for the next three days with some 
possibility of isolated periods of minor degradations on 
12 October in the southern parts of this region. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 275 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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