[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 October 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 6 10:27:03 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Oct             07 Oct             08 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 24 
hours. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 400 km/s 
to nearly 360 km/s over this period. The Bz component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field showed flucuations between +/- 2nT 
for most parts of the UT day on 05 October. Solar activity is 
expected to stay at very low levels for the next 3 days. The 
solar disc is spotless. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22111211
      Darwin               2   11000202
      Townsville           6   22211222
      Learmonth            3   22000201
      Canberra             1   01000101
      Hobart               3   11111111
      Casey(Ant)           8   33311211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Oct : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1211 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Oct     2    Quiet 
07 Oct     2    Quiet 
08 Oct     2    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions remained at quiet levels on 
05 October. Similar conditions may be expected for the next 
3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal on 05 October 
with isolated periods of depressions in MUFs on all latitudes. 
HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on most 
locations for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
05 Oct    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
      periods of minor to moderate degradations. 

Predicted Monthly T index for October:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Oct     1    near predicted monthly values 
07 Oct     1    near predicted monthly values 
08 Oct     1    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Normal ionospheric support expected for all regions 
over the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 373 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    63900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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