[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 November 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 27 10:10:04 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Nov 28 Nov 29 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 71/6 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the
last 24 hours. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from
440 to 370 km/s and the Bz component of IMF stayed negative
(upto -5nT) for most parts of the UT day today. Solar activity
is expected to stay mostly at quiet levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 12221222
Darwin 5 11221222
Townsville 8 22222232
Learmonth 5 11221222
Canberra 5 11221212
Hobart 5 11221311
Casey(Ant) 10 23332222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 3221 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Nov 5 Quiet
28 Nov 5 Quiet
29 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet levels
today. Similar conditions may be exptected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today, although
strong sporadic E layers were observed at low and mid latitudes.
HF conditions are expected to stay mostly at normal levels
for the next 3 days as no significant ionospheric variations
are expected during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Nov -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Nov 0 near predicted monthly values
28 Nov 0 near predicted monthly values
29 Nov 0 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed acros
Aus/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions
may be expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 31700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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