[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 November 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 25 10:10:27 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Nov             26 Nov             27 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              73/9

COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 24 hours. 
The solar disc is spotless. The solar wind speed increased over 
the second half of the UT day along with solar wind density and 
some moderate fluctuations in IMF Bz. The increased activity 
is likely associated with a solar sector boundary crossing. Solar 
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the next 
three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   21123332
      Darwin               8   11113332
      Townsville          10   22223332
      Learmonth            8   21023332
      Canberra             7   11113232
      Hobart               9   32113232
      Casey(Ant)          12   3-323332
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Nov : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              19   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              0   0000 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Nov     5    Quiet 
26 Nov     5    Quiet 
27 Nov     2    Quiet 

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet for the first 
half of the UT day and Unsettled for the remainder. The increased 
activity was due to an increase in solar wind speed and density 
and moderate fluctuations in the IMF Bz likely associated with 
a solar sector boundary crossing. Expect geomagnetic conditions 
to return to mostly Quiet levels with isolated Unsettled periods 
today (25 Nov). Isolated Active periods possible at high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Nov    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Nov   -12    Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed. 
26 Nov   -15    Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed. 
27 Nov   -15    Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed. 

COMMENT: HF conditions were variable over the past 24 hours, 
mostly normal in the equatorial region and S.Aus and fair in 
N.Aus. Very strong and at times blanketing sporadic-E was observed 
at multiple N.Aus sites as well as Norfolk Is. MUFs were mostly 
near predicted monthly values. Expect continuing periods of 
sporadic-E at mid latitudes sites, but HF conditions otherwise 
mostly normal next 3 days. Some minor MUF depressions expected 
across the S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: 420 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    44300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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