[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 November 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 23 10:24:05 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 24 hours
with no significant flares. The previous spot groups 1032 and
1033 have decayed, 1032 to a region of plage. Solar wind speed
continued to decline as the effects of the coronal hole wane.
It was just above 400km/s at the time of this report. IMF Bz
was relatively stable over the UT day. Solar activity is expected
to remain at very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: Quiet with Active
periods at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 22 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 22112211
Darwin 5 22111212
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 4 22012211
Canberra 3 22101101
Hobart 4 22211201
Casey(Ant) 13 44-32221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 3122 1032
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Nov 3 Quiet
24 Nov 1 Quiet
25 Nov 1 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet at mid and low latitudes
over the last 24 hours, with isolated Active periods at high
latitudes, the ongoing high latitude activity due to a coronal
hole solar wind stream. Expect mostly Quiet conditions next three
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal Normal-poor Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Normal Normal-poor Normal-fair
24 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Nov -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Nov -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
24 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values
25 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were variable over the past 24 hours,
mostly normal in N.Aus and equatorial regions and fair to poor
in S.Aus. Very strong and at times blanketing sporadic-E was
observed at mid- and S.Aus stations, particularly in the morning
hours and on the east coast/Norfolk Is/NZ. MUFs were mostly near
predicted monthly values with some minor depressions in S.Aus
and the Antarctic regions. Expect ongoing periods of sporadic-E
throughout the day at mid- and S.Aus locations degrading HF
conditions. MUFs mostly near predicted monthly values with
some minor depressions in S.Aus.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Nov
Speed: 526 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 208000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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