[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 November 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 13 10:06:08 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 74/11 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last
24 hours. The solar wind speed stayed between 270 and
300 km/s over this period. The north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field stayed between +/-2 nT
almost the whole day on 12 November. Solar activity is expected
to stay at very low levels on 13 November and at very low
to low levels on 14 and 15 November as the old regions 1029
is expected to rotate onto the visitble disk on 14 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Darwin 2 11110011
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 1 10001001
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 3 11111111
Casey(Ant) 6 23321010
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Nov :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Nov 1 Quiet
14 Nov 1 Quiet
15 Nov 1 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions remained at quiet levels today.
Similar conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
15 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Depressions in MUFs and sporadic E blanketing observed
at low and some mid latitude stations. The ionosphere continues
to remain relatively weaker due to low solar activity. This may
result in minor to mild MUF depressions during the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Nov -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
14 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
15 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 11 November
and is current for interval 11-13 November. HF conditions remained
mostly at normal to fair levels on most locations on 12 November.
Similar conditions may be expected for the next three days as
no significant variations to the ionospheric conditions are expected
during this period and the ionosphere remains relatively weaker
due to continued low solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 309 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 14600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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