[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 November 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 10 10:38:22 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last
24 hours. The solar wind speed decreased from 430 km/s
to 370 km/s over this period. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged from about
-5 to 5 nT. Solar activity is expected to stay at very
low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 22221111
Darwin 5 22220112
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 4 22220101
Canberra 2 11210100
Hobart 5 22221111
Casey(Ant) 10 --431122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Nov :
Darwin 15 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 48 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 0111 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Nov 3 Quiet
11 Nov 3 Quiet
12 Nov 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions remained at quiet levels
today. Similar conditions may be expected for the next
3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Depressions in MUFs and sporadic E blanketing
observed at low and some mid latitude stations. The
ionosphere continues to remain relatively weaker due to
low solar activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Nov -32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
11 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
12 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 7
November and is current for interval 8-10 November. HF
conditions remained mostly at normal to fair levels on
most locations on 09 November. Similar conditions may be
expected for the next three days as no significant variations
to the ionospheric conditions are expected during this period
and the ionosphere remains relatively weaker due to continued
low solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Nov
Speed: 317 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 34200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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