[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 November 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 6 10:33:31 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Nov             07 Nov             08 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The solar wind speed remained below 320 km/s over the 
last 24 hours. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field ranged between ~ -4 and 5 nT. SOHO imagery shows 
a CME occurring off the east limb at 0100 UT which may have been 
associated with an increase in x-ray flux that occurred around 
04/2100 UT. Region 1030 (N25, E04) was numbered today. Solar 
wind parameters may become disturbed 6 Nov in response to a coronal 
hole wind stream. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22111011
      Darwin               2   21100001
      Townsville           5   22212121
      Learmonth            2   22010001
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Hobart               -   --------
      Casey(Ant)           6   23321011
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Nov : 
      Darwin              15   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              0   0000 0000     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Nov     7    Quiet to unsettled
07 Nov     6    Quiet to unsettled
08 Nov     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Isolated active period possible 6 Nov, 7 Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
07 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
08 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
05 Nov   -13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
      01-05 and 13-19 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 20%
      06-12 and 18-19 UT. Enhancements to 30% 22-23 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
      00-05 and 22-23 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25%
      00-08 and 12-19 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 40% at
      Macquarie Is. and Casey 10-19 UT.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Nov    -5    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. 
07 Nov   -10    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
08 Nov   -10    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 286 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list