[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 November 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 4 10:31:11 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z NOVEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The solar wind speed appears to have remained mostly
below 400 km/s over the last 24 hours. A persistent coronal hole
is expected to become geo-effective late on 5 Nov or 6 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 21111111
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 4 22111121
Learmonth 2 21011010
Canberra 1 11000010
Hobart 3 11111111
Casey(Ant) 5 32211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Nov :
Darwin 19 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0011 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Nov 5 Quiet
05 Nov 5 Quiet
06 Nov 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The field is expected to become disturbed possibly late
on the 5 Nov. due to a recurrent coronal hole. Isolated active
periods possible on 6 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
05 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
06 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Nov -30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
01-07 and 11-15 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 40%
04-19 and 21-23 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
04-06 and 11-18 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
00-18 UT Brisbane, Norfolk and Hobart and to 25%
Canberra and Sydney 00-08 UT. Enhancements to 40%
17-20 UT at Canberra and Sydney.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
at Macquarie Is. and Casey.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
05 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
06 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 329 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 21700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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