[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 May 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 30 09:53:42 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 30 MAY - 01 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 May: Very Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 May: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 May 31 May 01 Jun
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours and
the visible solar disk remains spotless. Solar wind speed remains
slightly elevated, ranging between 380km/s and 420km/s over the
UT day due to the influence of the current high latitude geo-effective
coronal hole. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field ranged between +/-5nT over the UT day. Expect solar activity
to be Very Low for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 May : A K
Australian Region 5 12222111
Darwin 4 22211111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 22212211
Camden 4 12122111
Canberra 3 02122110
Hobart 4 02122111
Casey(Ant) 7 23222211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 1323 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
31 May 4 Quiet
01 Jun 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the
last 24 hours. Quiet conditions with possible Unsettled periods
are expected for the next 24 hours. Quiet conditions for 31May-01Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal-fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 May Normal-fair Normal Fair
31 May Normal-fair Normal Fair-normal
01 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 May -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 May -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
31 May -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Jun 0 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed conditions observed for Northern AUS and Equatorial
regions during local day and continued sporadic E. Mostly normal
HF conditions for Southern AUS/NZ regions. Disturbed conditions
for Antarctic regions due to the increase in geomagnetic activity.
MUF depressions of 10%-20% possible for low to mid latitudes
for 30May-31May and continued disturbed conditions for Anarctic
regions. A return to mostly normal HF conditions for all regions
is expected on 01Jun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 May
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 116000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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