[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 May 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 28 09:36:09 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 28 MAY - 30 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 May:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 May             29 May             30 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
The Solar disk is spotless. The solar wind has decreased from 
310 to 270 km/s. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for 
the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 27 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100001
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           4   12211112
      Learmonth            1   11010000
      Camden               1   11000010
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   10000000
      Casey(Ant)           3   21110111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               4   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1010 1112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 May     4    Quiet 
29 May     4    Quiet 
30 May     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 May     0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 May     5    near predicted monthly values 
29 May     5    Near predicted monthly values 
30 May     5    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions over the last 24 hours for 
all regions, with continued sporadic E for Northern AUS and Equatorial
regions. Enhanced conditions for Antarctic and southern Australian 
regions possible. Expect these conditions to prevail over the 
next 3 days with near predicted monthly MUF values. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 May
Speed: 307 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    13800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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