[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 May 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 19 09:45:03 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May:  Very Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 May             20 May             21 May
Activity     Very Low           Very Low           Very Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              74/11              74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the past 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed was ~300km/s over the UT day. The Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-5nT, with 
a notable southward period of -3nT between 00UT-04UT. Solar activity 
is expected to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100011
      Darwin               2   11000012
      Townsville           5   22211122
      Learmonth            2   11100012
      Camden               1   11000001
      Canberra             0   00000001
      Hobart               1   10100001
      Casey(Ant)           4   12211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1100 0112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 May     5    Quiet 
20 May     5    Quiet 
21 May     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 May    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 May    10    near predicted monthly values 
20 May    10    near predicted monthly values 
21 May    10    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24 
hours for all regions, with enhanced conditions for Equatorial, 
Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions during local night. 
Some isolated disturbed periods for Antarctic regions. Similar 
conditions are expected for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May
Speed: 373 km/sec  Density:    0.2 p/cc  Temp:    41900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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