[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 May 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 17 09:29:59 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 17 MAY - 19 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 May:  74/11

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 May             18 May             19 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels on 
16 May. Solar wind speed gradually increased from 340 to 
400 km/s by 1700 UT and decreased to 380 km/s by the time 
of this report (around 2315UT). The Bz component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field stayed close to the normal 
value for most part of this day. Solar activity is expected 
to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Darwin               3   21110012
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            4   12221021
      Camden               2   11111010
      Canberra             1   11010010
      Hobart               2   11111110
      Casey(Ant)           6   22321121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1000 1102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 May     5    Quiet 
18 May     5    Quiet 
19 May     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed on most 
locations on 16 May. Similar conditions may be expected for 
the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
on most locations for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 May    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 May    11    0 to 5% above predicted monthly values 
18 May    11    0 to 5% above predicted monthly values 
19 May    11    0 to 5% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
across Aus/NZ regions for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 May
Speed: 364 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    67500 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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