[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 May 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 15 09:55:54 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 May             16 May             17 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: AR1017 is at N18E27 and two spot groups span the centre 
of the visible disc. This active region has a moderate chance 
of subflaring. However it has a simple beta magnetic class and 
is not expected to produce any significant flares at this time, 
though the sunspot count has increased slightly indicating a 
small increase in magnetic complexity. The SOHO spacecraft observed 
a CME off the east limb two days ago. The solar wind speed at 
Earth showed an increase from 320 to 400km/sec at 20UT, with 
a preceding strong Bz northwards 10-14UT and southwards 14-20UT, 
indicating good geomagnetic merging. This may be the edge of 
the eastwards CME if the shock front was broader than usual. 
The STEREO-B spacecraft shows the trailing solar wind speed to 
be less than at Earth so the enhancement will likely only last 
a day or two. Another active region can be seen emerging on the 
east limb in the SOHO images. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 14 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   12233221
      Darwin              11   1-333322
      Townsville           9   12233232
      Learmonth           11   12234331
      Camden               5   02122221
      Canberra             4   01122121
      Hobart               4   01222121
      Casey(Ant)           9   22233222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 May : 
      Darwin              17   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           11   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1000 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
17 May     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Conditions have been Quiet to Unsettled at mid latitudes 
with sporaidc Active periods at low latitudes. Auroral oval latitudes 
are now showing Storm conditions due to the solar wind speed 
jump at 20UT and preceding strong Bz south. Expect continuing 
Quiet-Unsettled with isolated Active periods on the 15th. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 May     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 May    10    0 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
16 May    10    0 to 5% above predicted monthly values 
17 May     5    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slightly elevated MUFs expected due to an increase in 
ionisation induced by an increase in EUV levels from plage associated 
with AR1017 on the sun. Also alightly increased geomagnetic activity 
for the next 1-2 days may increase MUFs slightly and also introduce 
more variability. Equatorial latitudes showed strong nighttime 
spread-F due to upwelling in the anomaly. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 May
Speed: 307 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:    23100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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