[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 May 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May:  74/11

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 May             14 May             15 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               73/9               73/9

COMMENT: The visible disc remains spotless, however there are 
two plage regions. The two plage regions show a beta magnetic 
class structure and have moderate possibility to subflare. No 
significant flare activity is expected at this time. The solar 
wind speed decreased from 370 to 330 km/s, but is expected to 
return to just under 400 km/s by the end of the UT day and 
increase to 500 kkm/s in the next two days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11100111
      Darwin               2   11100111
      Townsville           6   22211222
      Learmonth            2   11100201
      Camden               1   01000101
      Canberra             0   00000100
      Hobart               0   01000100
      Casey(Ant)           4   12211211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   2111 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 May     6    Quiet 
14 May     7    Quiet 
15 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Expect mostly quiet geomagnetic activity levels today. 
Over the following two days expect quiet conditions with isolated 
periods of unsettled geomagnetic activity. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
12 May    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 May    10    near predicted monthly values 
14 May    10    near predicted monthly values 
15 May    10    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 407 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    55900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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