[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 May 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 10 09:29:28 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z MAY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 10 MAY - 12 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 May: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 May 11 May 12 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels for
the last 24 hours. The visible solar disc remains spotless.
Solar wind speed stayed mostly between 470 and 500 km/s
until around 1600UT and then declined to 440 km/s towards
the end of the UT day. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field stayed slightly (sometimes upto -4nT) for
most part of the UT day on 09 May. Solar activity is expected
to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 May : A K
Australian Region 6 12232211
Darwin 7 12232212
Townsville 8 22232222
Learmonth 8 12233311
Camden 6 02232211
Canberra 3 01132100
Hobart - --------
Casey(Ant) 8 2-322321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 May :
Darwin 9 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 15 (Quiet)
Gnangara 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13 4441 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 May 5 Quiet
11 May 4 Quiet
12 May 4 Quiet
COMMENT: A gradual decline in the geomagnetic activity has
been observed over the last 24 hours due to the weakening
of the coronal hole effect. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to stay mostly at quiet levels for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal Normal Normal
11 May Normal Normal Normal
12 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 May 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Variable conditions during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 May 11 near predicted monthly values
11 May 12 near predicted monthly values
12 May 12 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations across Aus/NZ regions for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 May
Speed: 493 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 100000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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