[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 March 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 31 10:42:56 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z MARCH 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Mar 01 Apr 02 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind velocity ranged between 400km/s and 440km/s over the
UT day. Solar activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels
over the next 3 days, as the visible solar disc remains spotless.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 22112111
Darwin 4 22111111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 4 22112120
Camden - --------
Canberra 2 21011000
Hobart 2 21111000
Casey(Ant) 8 23322121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden NA
Gnangara 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1111 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Mar 6 Quiet
01 Apr 5 Quiet
02 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for the next three
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
01 Apr Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
02 Apr Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Mar -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Mar 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Apr 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Apr 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Depressed conditons observed during local day and night
for Northern Australia regions over the last 24h hours. Mostly
normal conditions for Equatorial and Southern AUS/NZ regions,
with some disturbed periods for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 3 days, with possible MUF depressions
of 10%-20%.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 60700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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