[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 March 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 29 10:20:08 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z MARCH 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 29 MARCH - 31 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Mar:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Mar             30 Mar             31 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: The solar wind speed ranged between 400 and 480 km/s 
and is expected to remain in this range or slighly lower. The 
visible solar disc remains spotless, however the GONG magnetogram 
shows a possible spot region developing at N25E50. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 28 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21110022
      Darwin               3   21100022
      Townsville           5   22111122
      Learmonth            3   21000022
      Canberra             1   10000011
      Hobart               1   10010011
      Casey(Ant)           7   32221122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden              NA
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   0000 1232     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Mar     6    Quiet 
30 Mar     4    Quiet 
31 Mar     4    Quiet 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
28 Mar    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Mar    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
30 Mar    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
31 Mar    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: Noted spread F in hobart during local night. A slight 
increase in solar activity (plage) may bring equatorial region 
MUFs to near predicted monthly values. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Mar
Speed: 420 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    55100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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