[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 March 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 26 10:27:43 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z MARCH 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 72/8
COMMENT: The solar wind speed has remained elevated over the day,
ranging between about 450 to 510 km/s. Speed is currently around
470 km/s. Wind speed is expected to remain elevated on day one.
The solar disc is presently spotless.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 22321112
Darwin 5 22220112
Townsville 10 23332222
Learmonth 5 22220112
Camden - --------
Canberra 4 22220011
Hobart 6 22330011
Casey(Ant) 8 33321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden NA
Gnangara 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 0323 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Mar 8 Quiet to unsettled
27 Mar 8 Quiet to unsettled
28 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible at higher latitudes
on day one and two.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
27 Mar Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
28 Mar Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Mar -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 40%
00-03 and 15-17 UT. No data for Vanimo.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%,
mostly 00-06 UT. Night sporadic E observed at Cocos Is.
and Townsville. Sporadic E observed at Darwin 18-22 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%,
mostly 00-07 UT. Some sporadic E during night at
Brisbane, Learmonth and Norfolk. Is.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Mar 3 Mostly near predicted monthly values.
27 Mar 3 Mostly near predicted monthly values.
28 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
COMMENT: Occasional depressions to 30% possible on all days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: 449 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 94000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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