[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 June 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JUNE 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jun             15 Jun             16 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar wind speed ranged from 280 to 300 and is expected 
to remain at this range for the next three days. The solar disk 
is spotless. LASCO C2 and C3 show a CME in progress at the time 
of this report on the east limb first appearing at 0526 UT on 
13 June. The CME is not expected to be geo-effective. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   01211101
      Darwin               3   11211101
      Townsville           7   12312222
      Learmonth            2   01211101
      Camden               1   01100100
      Canberra             0   00100000
      Hobart               1   00101101
      Casey(Ant)           3   11112111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0000 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jun     4    Quiet 
15 Jun     4    Quiet 
16 Jun     4    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
13 Jun    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:   5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jun     5    near predicted monthly values 
15 Jun     5    near predicted monthly values 
16 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: HF MUF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
to slightly enhanced across Aust/NZ region for the next three 
days. Nighttime MUF enhancements are noted in particular. Noted 
some ocassional sporadic E at Brisbane, Canberra, and Sydney 
during day time hours. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 287 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:    12400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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