[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 June 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 12 09:39:18 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JUNE 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 12 JUNE - 14 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jun: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar wind speed (Vsw) at the ACE spacecraft decreased
over the UT day from a slightly enhanced 360km/sec to a low 300
km/sec. The STEREO-B spacecraft shows IMF disturbances which
are likely a sector boundary expected to reach Earth in 1-2 days
time. IMF Bz was mostly southward from 16-23UT but geomagnetic
merging does not appear to have been strong. Previously active
region AR1020 (24N) has dissipated. X-ray activity at the GOES
spacecraft remains very low. Solar activity is expected to stay
at very low levels for at least the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 11110111
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 5 12211222
Learmonth 3 31110100
Camden 1 11000011
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 10010111
Casey(Ant) 3 12110111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5 1120 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jun 3 Quiet
13 Jun 6 Quiet
14 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained mostly at Quiet levels
today with only a slight Unsettled period early in the UT day
at equatorial latitudes. Quiet levels are expected for the next
one day with the possibility of some Unsettled periods on 13
June from the passage of a solar IMF sector boundary. See solar
section. IMF Bz was mostly southward from 16-23UT but geomagnetic
merging does not appear to have been strong as polar latitudes
remained geomagnetically quiet.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jun 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jun 8 0 to 10% above predicted monthly values
13 Jun 13 0 to 20% above predicted monthly values
14 Jun 10 0 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF MUF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
to slightly enhanced across Aust/NZ region for the next three
days. Nighttime MUF enhancements are noted in particular. Prevalance
of night spread-F in near equatorial regions. Possibility of
increased MUF enhancements and a slightly disturbed ionosphere
around the 13th due to the passage of a solar IMF sector boundary
and possible Unsettled geomagnetic field.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jun
Speed: 360 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 60300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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