[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 June 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 8 09:44:07 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JUNE 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 08 JUNE - 10 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jun:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Jun             09 Jun             10 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed stayed between 320 and 360 km/s almost the 
whole UT day today. The Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field stayed close to the normal value for most 
parts of the day, showing fluctuations upto +/-5nT at times. 
Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels for 
the next 3 days. Some strengthening in the solar wind stream 
is possible on 10 June. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 07 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Darwin               3   11111111
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            3   11112111
      Camden               2   01111111
      Canberra             1   01000110
      Hobart               3   10111211
      Casey(Ant)           5   12221121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   1210 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Jun     4    Quiet 
09 Jun     4    Quiet 
10 Jun     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at quiet levels today. 
Similar level of activity is expected for the next three days
with some possibility of isolated unsettled periods on 10 June 
due to a recurrent pattern. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal to fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations 
today although sporadic E-layers and spread-F conditions were 
also observed at times. HF conditions are expected to remain 
mostly normal on most locations for the next three days with 
some possibility of minor degradations on high latitudes on 
10 June. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
07 Jun     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:   5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Jun     6    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10%. 
09 Jun     6    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10%. 
10 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values. 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on 
most locations across Aus/NZ regions for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jun
Speed: 322 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    43600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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