[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 July 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 27 09:29:23 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JULY - 29 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jul:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jul             28 Jul             29 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today (26 July). 
The high speed solar wind stream from the coronal hole 
showed further signs of weakening. The solar wind speed 
gradually decreased from 440 km/s to 420 km/s the UT day. 
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field showed 
minor fluctuations between +/-2nT for most parts of the day 
staying positive for relatively longer periods of time. 
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels 
for the next 3 days (27 to 29 July). 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 26 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11101001
      Darwin               1   11001001
      Townsville           5   22212112
      Learmonth            1   11001000
      Camden               0   01001000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               1   11101001
      Casey(Ant)           4   22211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara           118   (Major storm)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   3301 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jul     4    Quiet 
28 Jul     3    Quiet 
29 Jul     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: As anticipated the geomagnetic activity stayed at 
quiet levels today. Similar levels of activity are expected 
for the next three days (27 to 29 July). 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jul     Normal to fair  Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Sporadic E-layer on low and some mid latitude 
locations and spread F mainly on high latitudes were 
observed today (26 July). HF conditions are expected to 
remain mostly normal on most locations from 27 to 29 July. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
26 Jul    -9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
      periods of minor to significant degradations. 

Predicted Monthly T index for July:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jul    -5    near predicted monthly values 
28 Jul    -4    near predicted monthly values 
29 Jul    -4    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in Aus/NZ regions from 27 to 29 July. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jul
Speed: 484 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    78100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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