[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 July 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 25 09:35:03 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jul             26 Jul             27 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today (24 July). 
The high speed solar wind stream from the coronal hole 
continued to affect the earth today as well. The solar wind 
speed remained between 520 and 560 km/s today with a pattern 
of gradual decrease as the coronal hole effect is weakening. 
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field showed 
minor fluctuations between +/-3nT for most parts of the day. 
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for 
the next 3 days (25 to 27 July). 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11222211
      Darwin               4   11112212
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            5   21222202
      Camden               3   11111201
      Canberra             3   11112201
      Hobart               5   11222211
      Casey(Ant)          11   23322421
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              11   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   1232 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jul     5    Quiet to unsettled 
26 Jul     7    Quiet to unsettled 
27 Jul     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet levels 
today. With a continued exposure of the earth to the high 
speed solar wind stream from the recurrent coronal hole, 
periods of higher geomagnetic activity levels can not be 
ruled out on 25 July if Bz turns negative for sustained 
periods. Some rise in geomagnetic activity levels on 26 July 
is also possible due to a recurrent pattern. Activity is 
expected to return to mostly quiet levels on 27 July. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
26 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Strong sporadic E-layer on low and some mid 
latitude locations and spread F mainly on high latitudes 
were observed today (24 July). HF conditions are expected 
to remain mostly normal on most locations from 25 to 27 July 
with some possibility of minor degradations on high latitude 
locations due to a possible rise in geomagnetic activity 
levels on 25 and 26 July. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
24 Jul    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
      periods of minor to significant degradations.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jul     2    near predicted monthly values 
26 Jul     2    near predicted monthly values 
27 Jul     4    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in Aus/NZ regions from 25 to 27 July with some possibility 
of minor degradations in the southern regions on 25 and 26 
July due to a possible rise in geomagnetic activity levels 
on these days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 502 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:   179000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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