[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 July 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 23 09:48:22 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today. The
anticipated effect of the coronal hole seems to have
eventuated with a delay of around 24 hours as the solar
wind speed started to gradually increase early today.
The solar wind speed went above 450 km/s by 1100UT and
stayed around this value for the rest of the UT day
(22 July). The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field went negative (upto -17nT) with the arrival of this
solar wind stream from the coronal hole. Bz remained
negative for several hours and then turned positive upto
around +14nT. Bz stayed close to the normal value from
1100UT until the time of this report (2330UT). Solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels
for the next 3 days (22 to 24 July).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: Quiet to major storm.
Estimated Indices 22 Jul : A K
Australian Region 11 23441121
Darwin 15 33451121
Townsville 14 24442222
Learmonth 18 23551231
Camden 11 23441121
Canberra 10 13441120
Hobart 14 23452121
Casey(Ant) 11 13432132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jul :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2111 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jul 7 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible.
24 Jul 4 Quiet
25 Jul 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity rose beyond the expected
levels upto major storm levels on some high latitude
locations. The previously anticipated coronal hole effect
seems to have eventuated with a delay of around 24 hours.
Wide spread auroras have been reported. Activity is expected
to remain mostly at quiet to unsettled levels on 23 July and
mostly at quiet levels for the following two days (24 and 25 July).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Strong sporadic E-layer on low and some mid
latitude locations and spread F mainly on high latitudes
were observed today (22 July). HF conditions are expected
to remain mostly normal on most locations from 23 to 25
July with some possibility of minor to moderate degradations
on high latitude locations due to a possible rise in
geomagnetic activity levels on 23 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jul 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jul 4 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
24 Jul 5 near predicted monthly values
25 Jul 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in Aus/NZ regions from 23 to 25 July with some possibility
of minor degradations in the southern regions on 23 July due
to a possible rise in geomagnetic activity levels on 23 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 325 km/sec Density: 7.8 p/cc Temp: 19500 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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