[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 July 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 21 09:45:00 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JULY - 23 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jul: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today. Solar wind
stream seems to have started to strengthen due to the
anticipated effect of a coronal hole. Solar wind speed gradually
increased from 280 km/s to 340 km/s during the UT day today.
The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-5 nT for most parts
of the UT day today. Solar activity is expected to remain at
very low levels for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 11122211
Darwin 4 12122201
Townsville 7 12222322
Learmonth 5 12222300
Camden 4 011222--
Canberra 3 01122200
Hobart 6 11123310
Casey(Ant) 3 11111211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jul 14 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible.
22 Jul 9 Quiet to unsettled
23 Jul 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic acivity may show some rise on 21 July
due the effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a
recurrent coronal hole. Activity level is then expected to
gradually decline over the following 2 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Strong sporadic E-layer on low and some mid latitude
locations and spread F mainly on high latitudes were observed
on 20 July. HF conditions may show some degradations on high
and some mid latitude locations on 21 and possibly 22 July due
to an anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity levels on
these days. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations on 23 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jul -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% at times during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of minor to significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jul -5 5 to 15% below predicted monthly values
22 Jul -3 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jul -1 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions
may be observed across Aus/NZ regions, especially in the
southern parts, on 21 July and at times on 22 July due to
an anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity levels on
these days. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal in this region on 23 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jul
Speed: 285 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 10700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list