[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 July 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul:  66/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jul             19 Jul             20 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0
COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless. Solar wind parameters have 
declined to nominal levels. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100000
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           3   12111111
      Learmonth            0   10000000
      Camden               0   00000000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               1   11100001
      Casey(Ant)           2   22101100
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1010 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jul     3    Quiet 
19 Jul     3    Quiet 
20 Jul     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters have declined to nominal levels. 
Expect generally quiet conditions next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Jul    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Periods of spread-F and sporadic-E observed in Equatorial 
region. Weak ionosphere at times S Ocean/Antarctic regions. Expect 
mostly normal conditions next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: 386 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    39600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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