[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 July 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jul             17 Jul             18 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0
COMMENT: The solar disk is spotless. Solar wind parameters declined 
slowly over the UT day. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 15 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12112101
      Darwin               3   12102101
      Townsville           6   22222212
      Learmonth            5   13222100
      Camden               1   11101100
      Canberra             1   11101000
      Hobart               4   12112111
      Casey(Ant)           7   23222211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        8   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             9   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   4321 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jul     5    Quiet 
17 Jul     4    Quiet 
18 Jul     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined slowly over the UT day. The 
Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained mostly 
neutral.Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed at high 
latitudes only over the first half of the UT day. Otherwise 
conditions were quiet. Expect quiet conditions next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Jul     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Variable conditions over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Periods of spread-F and sporadic-E observed in Equatorial 
region. Weak ionosphere at times S Ocean/Antarctic regions. Expect 
mostly normal conditions next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 523 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   126000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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