[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 July 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 9 09:46:03 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z JULY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul: Very low
Flares: No significant flares occurred.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Region 1024 (S25,W53) has grown slightly in area due
to some development in the central spots, however spot number
has decreased slightly. Culgoora Solar Observatory H-alpha images
showed plage enhancements in this central section of the spot
group over the last 24 hours. San Vito Solar Observatory reports
an area of 200 mils and 7 spots for this region. The solar wind
ranged from 360 to 300 over the last 24 hours and is expected to
remain in this range for the next three days. However, there is a
slight chance of an increase in solar wind speed due to a weak
coronal hole extending from the pole to 25 degrees north latitude
later in the UT day, 9 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 3 21111111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 3 11121110
Camden 2 11111010
Canberra 1 01111000
Hobart 3 11121111
Casey(Ant) 3 11112111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 1101 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jul 4 Quiet
10 Jul 4 Quiet
11 Jul 4 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jul 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jul 6 near predicted monthly values
10 Jul 6 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jul 6 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs remained mostly close to the normal values. Isolated
cases of sporadic E noted at Cocos Island, Norfolk Island, Darwin,
Brisbane, Canberra, and Sydney. Spread F noted at high latitudes.
Expect mostly normals values for MUFs over the next three days.
IPSNET ionograms can be viewed at www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/3
for more details of particular sites.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jul
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 7.2 p/cc Temp: 39800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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