[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 June 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 1 09:29:24 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JUNE 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jul 02 Jul 03 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
As anticipated the solar wind stream weakened today. Solar
wind speed decreased from around 500 km/s to 440 km/s during
the UT day today. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field remained between +/-4 nT for most parts of the
UT day today. Solar activity is expected to be very low for
the next 3 days as the visible solar disk remains spotless.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 12120211
Darwin 4 12120211
Townsville 7 22221322
Learmonth 6 22220311
Camden 3 12120210
Canberra 2 11110210
Hobart 3 11120211
Casey(Ant) 7 23220321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 4312 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jul 4 Quiet
02 Jul 4 Quiet
03 Jul 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed predominantly at quiet
levels today. Similar conditions are expected for the next
three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Strong sporadic-E regions on low and mid latitudes
and spread-F conditions mainly on mid and high latitudes
were observed over the last 24 hours. HF conditions are
expected to remain mostly normal on most locations for
the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jun 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of minor to significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jul 6 near predicted monthly values
02 Jul 6 near predicted monthly values
03 Jul 6 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs remained mostly close to the normal values
for low and mid latitude regions with strong sporadic E
on 30 June. Minor to significant degradations in HF conditions
observed on high latitdes on this day. HF conditions are
expected to remain mostly normal on most locations for the
next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 538 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 162000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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