[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 January 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 30 10:41:56 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JANUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jan 31 Jan 01 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low and the solar disk has
no numbered sunspot regions. The SOHO spacecraft shows a small
bight region approaching the centre of the disc, near the equator
with a quasi-bipolar magnetic structure that may develop into
a full sunspot region. Usual moderate IMF Bz north-south fluctuations.
Sustained Bz southwards 03-07UT resulting in merging with geomagnetic
field. Solar wind velocities were choppy, averaging an elevated
400km/sec and varying 380 to 420 km/sec. This seems to be the
high-speed solar-wind stream (HSSWS) from the southern solar
hemisphere coronal hole now on the western limb. The STEREO-B
spacecraft shows another longitudinally thin but latitudinally
elongated coronal hole in the northern solar hemisphere, which
may rotate to geoeffective position early next week.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22221111
Darwin 4 22211012
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 5 22221112
Camden 4 12221111
Canberra 3 12220000
Hobart 5 12321111
Casey(Ant) 8 3--32112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jan :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0001 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jan 6 Quiet to unsettled
31 Jan 3 Quiet
01 Feb 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the UT day (29
Jan) at mid-latitudes, with some Unsettled periods at very southern
latitudes. High latitudes were Quiet-Unsettled and the polar
cap and auroral oval had 3-6 hours Active to Minor Storm levels
in the 05-11UT periods resulting from the IMF Bz southwards 03-07UT.
The moderately elevated and choppy solar wind speed from the
coronal hole is not affecting overall geomagnetic activity yet.
Expect Quiet-Unsettled for the 30th UT day and decline to very
quiet conditions afterwards. The next coronal hole is expected
to take effect early next week.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jan -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jan -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
10%
31 Jan -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
01 Feb -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: Sporadic-E events again observed throughout the region,
particularly strong blanketing Es that obscured the F-region,
along the Australian eastern seaboard (Brisbane, Sydney, Canberra,
Norfolk Is sondes) during the night and continuing into this
morning. MUFs were again depressed at mid and equatorial latitudes,
particularly during the local day. At mid-latitudes a short post-dusk
enhancement was observed again, more pronounced at northern stations,
and this took the foF2 to above monthly average levels at several
stations. See Current foF2 plots webpage under Australiasia-HF
Conditions. There were again significant local depressions and
enhancements in the equatorial region, despite the lack of any
geomagnetic activity. Strong enhancements during the local morning
but depressions during local noon. These are likely caused by
high altitude (300km) thermospheric winds. Continuing Sporadic-E
events seem likely. Expect MUFs to continue below monthly averages
due to lack of sunspot activity. A coronal hole solar wind speed
increase has taken effect but the geomagnetic field and ionosphere
are yet to respond. Possible moderate geomagnetic activity during
the 30th Jan UT day could raise MUFs closer to predicted monthly
averages.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jan
Speed: 356 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 38700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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