[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 January 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 22 10:32:26 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JANUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jan             23 Jan             24 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low, expected to continue. 
Solar wind speeds remain near 400km/s, expected to decline further 
over next two days. The IMF is relatively stable. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 21 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11212222
      Darwin               4   11112212
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            5   10213211
      Camden               6   3-10----
      Canberra             3   01112211
      Hobart               4   01212221
      Casey(Ant)           8   22-32222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden              93   (Minor storm)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3   2000 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jan     2    Quiet 
23 Jan     2    Quiet 
24 Jan     2    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at Quiet levels at all latitudes 
other than the polar regions which saw some isolated Active periods 
as a result of weak substorm activity on the nightside. Quiet 
geomagnetic conditions are predicted for the next three days 
(22-24 Jan). 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Jan   -21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jan   -15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
23 Jan   -15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
24 Jan   -15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: Intermittent sporadic-E events again observed throughout 
the region. Very strong and blanketing at times, particularly 
in the Canberra - Sydney region 00-05UT. MUFs were mildly depressed 
in N.Aus with some significant local depressions during the day 
in the equatorial region. Continuing Sporadic-E events likely 
from Equatorial to S.Aus/NZ regions. Expect continuing variable 
HF conditions with occasional MUF depressions 22 Jan. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jan
Speed: 427 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    67000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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