[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 January 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 20 10:33:22 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JANUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low, with only minor spot
regions on the visible disk. Very low activity expected to continue.
A weak recurrent coronal hole wind stream arrived ~22UT 18/01,
raising solar wind speed to near 500km/s. Solar wind speeds expected
to decline from this level over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 19 Jan : A K
Australian Region 11 43322222
Darwin 8 32312212
Townsville 11 43322222
Learmonth 12 43322322
Camden 11 43322212
Canberra 7 32311211
Hobart 12 44321221
Casey(Ant) 16 54-32222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jan 5 Quiet
21 Jan 5 Quiet
22 Jan 3 Quiet
COMMENT: A weak recurrent coronal hole resulted in Unsettled-Active
geomagnetic conditions at most latitudes early in the UT day,
returning to mostly Unsettled conditions for the remainder. Minor
Storm conditions were observed at high latitudes. Expect mostly
Quiet geomagnetic conditions today (20 Jan) with isolated Unsettled
intervals as the coronal hole wind stream declines. Isolated
Active periods possible at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jan -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by up to 30% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jan -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
21 Jan -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Jan -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Intermittent sporadic-E events observed throughout the
region, particularly 8-11UT. MUFs were generally mildly depressed
with some significant local depressions during the day in the
equatorial region. Continuing Sporadic-E events possible from
Equatorial to S Aus/NZ regions. Expect continuing variable HF
conditions with occasional MUF depressions next two days (20-21
Jan). Disturbances possible in the Antarctic region 20 Jan due
to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 53600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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