[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 January 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 18 10:29:45 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JANUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jan: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: A recurrent coronal hole wind stream is anticipated
days two and three of the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 12211111
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 4 22102111
Camden 2 11111110
Canberra 2 11101110
Hobart 3 11211110
Casey(Ant) 9 23331222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 2100 0010
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jan 3 Quiet
19 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions remained mostly quiet with isolated
unsettled to active intervals observed at high latitudes only.
Expect mostly quiet conditions day one. A weak recurrent coronal
hole wind stream may produce unsettled periods days two and three.
Chance of active intervals at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jan -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jan -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
19 Jan -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
20 Jan -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Variable sporadic-E events observed throughout the region,
with MUFs generally mildly depressed. Periods of spread-F conditions
observed S Aus and Antarctic regions. Persistent and intense
sporadic-E events possible from Equatorial to S Aus/NZ regions.
Expect continuing variable conditions with occasional MUF depressions
next three days. Disturbances possible Antarctic region days
two and three due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:N/A
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jan
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 70100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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