[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 January 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 14 10:25:00 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JANUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JANUARY - 16 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jan: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The solar wind is at normal levels and is expected to
remain at this level for the next three days. Active region 1010
has continued to decay and is not likely to produce any significant
flares at this time.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 22212212
Darwin 5 12202212
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 7 22213222
Camden 4 12212111
Canberra 4 12202111
Hobart 5 12212211
Casey(Ant) 14 34423222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jan 3 Quiet
15 Jan 3 Quiet
16 Jan 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed is at nominal levels. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field was mildly negative during
the early and late parts of the UT day. Negative Bz excursions
resulted in isolated unsettled to active intervals at high latitudes
only. Geomagnetic conditions at low to mid latitudes remained
quiet. Expect predominantly quiet conditions next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jan -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jan -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
15 Jan -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
16 Jan -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Generally depressed ionospheric conditions observed
Equatorial/N Aus regions. Sporadic-E events observed mainly central-S
Aus latitudes. Persistent and intense sporadic-E events probable
from Equatorial to S Aus/NZ regions. Expect continuing variable
conditions with occasional MUF depressions next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jan
Speed: 319 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 25000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list