[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 January 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JANUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JANUARY - 12 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jan:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jan             11 Jan             12 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The solar wind is at normal levels and is expected to 
remain at normal levels for the next three days. Expect solar 
activity to be very low, however, due to an emerging flux region 
located at N19E35 at 1710 UT 09 January with four spots there is 
a slight chance for a C-class flare. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 09 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22212221
      Darwin               6   12112322
      Townsville           8   22222322
      Learmonth            6   22112321
      Camden               5   12212221
      Canberra             4   12202211
      Hobart               5   12212211
      Casey(Ant)          14   34333232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0000 2111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jan     4    Quiet 
11 Jan     4    Quiet 
12 Jan     4    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
09 Jan   -16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jan   -15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
11 Jan   -15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
12 Jan   -15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: Sporadic-E conditions observed at most stations, particularly
in the south Australian regions. Persistent and intense sporadic-E 
events probable from Equatorial to S Aus/NZ regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jan
Speed: 312 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    32600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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