[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 January 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 5 10:27:33 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JANUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low. The present coronal
hole wind stream is now in decline.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 21111211
Darwin - --------
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 3 11111211
Camden 3 10111211
Canberra 3 10111211
Hobart 3 11111211
Casey(Ant) 8 33-22221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 3324 2201
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jan 4 Quiet
06 Jan 3 Quiet
07 Jan 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters are in decline as the present
coronal hole wind stream wanes. The geomagnetic field was quiet
at low to mid latitudes. At high latitudes conditions were quiet
to unsettled with isolated active intervals. Expect generally
quiet conditions next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jan -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jan -5 near predicted monthly values
06 Jan -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
07 Jan -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Variable mild MUF depressions/enhancements observed
Equatorial/ Aus regions with general improvement in conditions
Equatorial/N Aus regions. Extended periods of intense sporadic-E
conditions observed Central-S Aus regions. Expect continuing
variable conditions next three days. Persistent and intense
sporadic-E events probable from Equatorial to S Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 517 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 159000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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