[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 January 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 3 10:25:36 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JANUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low. The Earth is now under
the influence of a mild coronal hole wind stream which should
persist for 1 day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 22221222
Darwin 3 1-------
Townsville 8 22222232
Learmonth 6 22121222
Camden 4 11111222
Canberra 3 11110221
Hobart 4 12111221
Casey(Ant) 9 3-331222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1233 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jan 6 Quiet
04 Jan 4 Quiet
05 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain mildly elevated under the
influence of a coronal hole wind stream. The geomagnetic field
was mostly quiet with isolated unsettled intervals at high latitudes
only. Expect mostly quiet conditions day one with the chance
of isolated unsettled to active intervals at high latitudes.
Conditions should decline to generally quiet days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jan -19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jan -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
04 Jan -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
05 Jan -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Variable MUF depressions/enhancements observed Equatorial/
Aus regions. Periods of intense sporadic-E conditions observed
Central-S Aus/NZ regions. Expect continuing variable conditions
next three days. Persistent and intense sporadic-E events probable
from Equatorial to S Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jan
Speed: 471 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 138000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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