[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 February 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 28 10:29:49 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Feb: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Feb 01 Mar 02 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low and
is expected to remain that way for the next three days. An 8
degree filament disappeared from S41W36 between 0410UT and 1423UT,
27 Feb, although there was no evidence it produced a CME. The
solar wind increased steadily over the day under the influence
of what looks like a coronal hole wind stream, reaching 680km/s.
Moderate IMF fluctuations accompanied the onset of the coronal
hole before settling down to +/-3nT. Continuing elevated solar
wind speed expected 28 Feb with a quiet IMF.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
with isolated Minor Storm periods at high
latitudes.
Estimated Indices 27 Feb : A K
Australian Region 9 22233222
Darwin 9 22233222
Townsville 10 23233222
Learmonth 12 33243222
Camden 9 22233222
Canberra 7 22------
Hobart 10 22243221
Casey(Ant) 13 3-433222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 6 (Quiet)
Gnangara 16 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1100 0012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Feb 6 Quiet
01 Mar 3 Quiet
02 Mar 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled with
Minor Storm periods at high latitudes. The increased activity
was due to the onset of a coronal hole wind stream early in the
UT day. Expect a return to mostly Quiet conditions 28 Feb, with
isolated Active to Minor Storm periods at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Normal Fair
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Feb -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Variable enhancements and depressions by up
to 30% over the UT day.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Feb -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Mar -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Mar -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions in the Aus/NZ region over
the last 24 hours. Degraded HF conditions were observed at higher
latitude sites (Hobart, south) in response to increased geomagnetic
activity. The geomagnetic activity provided a small boost to
MUFs bringing them back to monthly average values for the day.
The equatorial regions saw some large fluctuation in MUFs over
the day with enhancements and depressions of up to 30%. MUFs
are expected to return to mildly depressed (10 to 20%) levels
next three days due to continuing low solar activity. 28 Feb
should see continuing MUF variability at equatorial sites, and
degraded HF at high latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Feb
Speed: 405 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 80700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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