[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 February 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 10 10:44:18 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 FEBRUARY - 12 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Very Low.
The visible solar disc remains spotless and activity is expected
to be Very Low for the next 3 days. Solar wind velocity peaked
at 340km/s at 0650UT and then declined to be 300km/s at the time
of this report. Bz ranged between +/-2nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 21101111
Darwin 2 20100111
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 3 21101102
Camden 2 11101111
Canberra 0 10000001
Hobart 2 11111101
Casey(Ant) 7 23311211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 4 0000 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Feb 5 Quiet
11 Feb 5 Quiet
12 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at Quiet levels over the
last 24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Feb -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Feb -10 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
11 Feb -10 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
12 Feb -10 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 8 February
and is current for interval 9-11 February. Depressed conditions
observed for Northern AUS and Equatorial regions during local
day/night and notable sporadic E over the last 24 hours. Southern
AUS/NZ regions had mostly normal conditions with depressions
during local night. Mostly normal conditions for Antarctic regions.
Similar depressed conditions for low to mid latitudes for the
next 3 days with possible disturbed periods for Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Feb
Speed: 319 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 27300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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