[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 February 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 8 10:29:29 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z FEBRUARY 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Feb 09 Feb 10 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels for
the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed remained between 310
and 330 km/s today and the Bz component of IMF stayed between
+/-3nT for most part of the day. Solar activity is expected
to stay at very low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 22112211
Darwin 3 11111102
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 4 22012202
Camden 4 12112211
Canberra 1 11001100
Hobart 3 12102201
Casey(Ant) 9 33332111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1000 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Feb 3 Quiet
09 Feb 3 Quiet
10 Feb 3 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity remained at quiet levels
today and similar conditions are expected for the next
three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
09 Feb Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
10 Feb Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
COMMENT: Fair to normal HF conditions on low and mid
latitudes and mostly normal conditions on high latitudes
were observed today. Similar HF conditions are expected
for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Feb -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
09 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
10 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on
5 February and is current for interval 6-8 February. Minor
to moderate depressions in MUFs may be observed across
Australian/NZ regions for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Feb
Speed: 330 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 32600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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