[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 December 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 28 10:37:27 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Dec 29 Dec 30 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 79/19 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Solar wind speed
decreased from 400 km/s to 360 km/s whereas the Bz component
of the IMF varied between +/-4nT during the UT day today. Solar
activity is expected to stay at very low levels for the next
three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 21122111
Darwin 3 11111112
Townsville 5 21122112
Learmonth 4 21122101
Canberra 1 01111000
Hobart 4 12222100
Casey(Ant) 8 3--32211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1210 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Dec 2 Quiet
29 Dec 2 Quiet
30 Dec 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed on
most locations today. Similar conditions may be expected for
the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations
today. Sporadic E-layer influences were also observed at low
and some mid latitude locations. Nearly similar HF conditions
with periods of minor depressions in MUFs may be expected for
the next three days as the ionospheric ionisation may remain
weak due to very low solar activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Dec -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Dec -5 Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 10%.
29 Dec -5 Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 10%.
30 Dec -5 Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 10%.
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ
region today. Nearly similar conditions with some periods of
minor MUF depressions may be expected for the next three days
as the ionosphere stays weak due to very low solar activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Dec
Speed: 396 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 66900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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