[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 December 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 26 10:42:51 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Dec: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Dec 27 Dec 28 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Solar wind speed
first decreased from 350 to 280 km/s and then increased to 380
km/s through the UT day today whereas the Bz component of the
IMF stayed near normal value until around 1600UT and then
fluctuated between +/-7 nT. Solar activity is expected to stay
at very low levels for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 21211222
Darwin 5 11111223
Townsville 5 21211222
Learmonth 5 21112222
Canberra 2 00100112
Hobart 4 11211122
Casey(Ant) 10 33232123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Dec :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1100 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Dec 2 Quiet
27 Dec 2 Quiet
28 Dec 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed
on most locations today. Similar conditions may be expected
for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations
today. Strong sporadic E-layer influences were also observed
at low and some mid latitude locations. Nearly similar HF
conditions with periods of minor depressions in MUFs may be
expected for the next three days as the ionospheric ionisation
may remain weak due to very low solar activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Dec -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Dec -6 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
27 Dec -6 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
28 Dec -6 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ
region today. Nearly similar conditions with some periods of
minor MUF depressions may be expected for the next three days
as the ionosphere stayes weak due to very low solar activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Dec
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 74700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list